What’s the fuss with macro? I am certainly not an advocate of market timing and I agree with the notion that trying to profit from timing market peaks and bottoms is a fool’s errand. As Buffett says Macro is important but unknowable so focus on the knowable i.e. focus on company fundamentals for the businesses […]
Month: February 2019
About Me
Hi. My name is Imran Siddiqui and I am Chief Investment Officer at Mosaic Capital Management. Investing has always been my passion. I bought my first stock as a teenager almost 30 years ago. I manage an investment partnership in which a significant portion of my net worth is invested alongside others. I have been […]
It’s probably nothing
And so our weakening US / Global growth outlook playbook hums along. Another piece of the jigsaw fell into place this morning with the reported plunge in US retail sales in December 2018 vs the prior month the worst in nine years. The headline number declined in almost every category on record. Overall retail sales […]
Early warning signs in the consumer credit market?
According to the latest quarterly report on household credit by the New York Fed the total household debt rose to a new record of $13.54 trillion. It was the 18th consecutive quarter with an increase and the total is now $869 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 billion in the third quarter of 2008. […]
S&P 500 earnings expectations
Let’s start with something that certainly made me chuckle before we get to the more dire stuff: Following on from my earlier post about a potential earnings recession on the horizon, according to Michael Wilson, Head of US equity strategy at Morgan Stanley: “Earnings revisions have been some of the worst we’ve ever observed in […]
QE in perpetuity?
Could it be Japan all over again? Or Europe? Japan and the BoJ have been at it for nearly three decades and yet the economy and the deflationary forces at work (debt, demographics, globalization and technology inflections) haven’t budged at all. More recently we have seen the same thing in Europe where the ECB has […]
An earnings recession in the US on the cards
As David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff tweeted this morning: The earnings recession has started. At the end of Sept, the consensus was +6.7% for YoY EPS. By end-2018, that estimate was down to +3.3%. And now -0.8%, with six of the eleven sectors in negative terrain. — David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) February 11, 2019 It’s the […]
The current economic landscape – it ain’t pretty
The global economy is slowing markedly and rapidly. Not a day goes by that you see headlines about some major country or continent manifesting more and more indicators of a tired economy. From Japan to China, the UK to the rest of Europe, growth is slowing or already in recession as in the case of […]
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step – Lao Tzu
I’ve been thinking about starting a blog for years but for many reasons never got around to it. The idea behind the blog is to not only share my journey as an investor and as a student of markets with the world at large, but also to connect with and learn from others along the […]